Posted Obamacare prices confirm premium increases

The 2026 Affordable Care Act plan previews were officially posted Thursday, giving Tennessee and other states under the federally managed marketplace a sneak peek at costs before open enrollment starts Nov. 1. States that use the market will see an average 30% increase in monthly premiums, according to expert analyses. In addition to rising premiums, the expected expiration of Obamacare subsidies means enrollees will be hit with what many are calling a "double whammy." Premium costs are increasing for a number of reasons. Insurer filings to state regulators cited rising hospital costs, increasing popularity of GLP-1 drugs and the threat of tariffs. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services recently projected average marketplace premiums at $50 with tax credits, a $13 increase from last year. Mandy Spears, the executive vice president of nonpartisan research group The Sycamore Institute, said premiums are also increasing in the ACA marketplace because insurers expect the loss of subsidies to leave a sicker and costlier group of enrollees. "The thinking there is the enhanced subsidies made these plans more affordable and attractive for people that maybe otherwise didn't see the value in having a plan before," like people who don't use a lot of health care, she said. "When you have those people in the health insurance pool, it makes the whole pool less expensive on a per person basis." Congress was still gridlocked in its debate over extending those enhanced subsidies as the government shutdown entered its 31st day Friday. The tax credits — which Congress first expanded in 2021 as a COVID-19 relief — expire at the end of the year. These rising costs across the board will likely prompt millions to drop their insurance. In Northeast Tennessee, a combined 36,200 people enrolled in the 2025 marketplace across Washington, Sullivan, Hawkins, Carter, Johnson and Unicoi counties. Last year's statewide enrollment more than doubled 2020 enrollees, before the subsidy expansion. The highest levels were among people with incomes between 100-150% of the poverty level, according to The Sycamore Institute. "It's not like folks have a whole lot of extra resources sitting around," Spears said. She added that in addition to dropping insurance, enrollees might scale back their plan, switch to more costly plans or reduce their health care use if subsidies expire. "If they have a more expensive option available to them, it's not necessarily given that they'll be able to afford it." Tennessee and Virginia premiums increase A newly updated calculator from the nonpartisan health research group KFF shows that a local family of four with the median $82,000 household income would likely pay about double last year's monthly premiums for a 2026 benchmark plan without subsidies. In cash, it would equate to about $300 more a month or $3,000 more a year. That family would still likely qualify for financial help, just at a lower level. In contrast, a return to pre-COVID tax credits means an individual making more than $62,000 a year would likely lose help. So would a family making more than $129,000. Prices are rising outside of the federal marketplace too. In Virginia, for example, the loss of premium tax credits would also approximately double premiums for a family making about $96,000. The state posted its proposed health insurance rates in early August, noting that most insurers proposed rate increases of 20% or higher. Before the national market posted its prices, Spears said some people were afraid of the possible costs. The good thing about the marketplace though, she added, is that it gives a decent number of options. "Usually you see people switching around a lot from year to year because they are able to shop and get something a little bit cheaper," Spears said. "So it's possible people will still have some options, but I'm not sure."