It’s the season for resolutions and predictions for the future. Many resolutions won’t be kept, and most predictions will prove unfounded.
In the case of global warming, it gets worse. Philip Tetlock, in his book on expert judgment, found that the predictions of 284 experts were little better than a dart-throwing chimpanzee. So, should we just blindly trust our scientists?
Consider that leaders in global warming alarmism have made numerous erroneous predictions in the past, yet now expect you to believe their latest predictions. A few of the past ones include:
1970 — Popular Mechanics magazine, temperatures to rise 9 degrees by 2020.
1986 — James Hansen, “father” of global warming, temperatures to increase 3-5 degrees by 2010.
1988 — The Environmental Protection Agency, sea levels rising 4 feet by 2025.
1995 — United Nations climate panel, most U.S. East Coast beaches gone by 2020.
2004 — World Wildlife Fund, polar bears infertile by 2014.
Predictions of sea level rise, temperatures, drought, hurricanes and severe weather — all continue to be terribly wrong. Global temperatures have officially dropped in the last decade, but do you hear that in the media?
An alarmist study at Yale by Kahan, reported in Nature, found that high-science literates were more skeptical of disastrous global warming, an unexpected finding. So their emphasis has shifted from facts to scare tactics.
There isn’t any consensus on global warming. That statement came from a graduate student’s master’s thesis at the University of Illinois, where 77 experts were cherry-picked from 10,000 questionnaires. The world’s science organizations also refuse to poll their memberships to determine their true attitudes, but a George Mason University poll of broadcast meteorologists found that a majority are skeptical of any crisis.
Benjamin Franklin once wrote, “Some are weatherwise, some are otherwise.“