It’s the season for resolutions and predictions for the future. Many resolutions won’t be kept, and most predictions will prove unfounded.
In the case of global warming, it gets worse. Philip Tetlock, in his book on expert judgment, found that the predictions of 284 experts were little better than a dart-throwing chimpanzee. So, should we just blindly trust our scientists?
Consider that leaders in global warming alarmism have made numerous erroneous predictions in the past, yet now expect you to believe their latest predictions. A few of the past ones include:
1970 — Popular Mechanics magazine, temperatures to rise 9 degrees by 2020.
1986 — James Hansen, “father” of global warming, temperatures to increase 3-5 degrees by 2010.
1988 — The Environmental Protection Agency, sea levels rising 4 feet by 2025.
1995 — United Nations climate panel, most U.S. East Coast beaches gone by 2020.
2004 — World Wildlife Fund, polar bears infertile by 2014.
Predictions of sea level rise, temperatures, drought, hurricanes and severe weather — all continue to be terribly wrong. Global temperatures have officially dropped in the last decade, but do you hear that in the media?
An alarmist study at Yale by Kahan, reported in Nature, found that high-science literates were more skeptical of disastrous global warming, an unexpected finding. So their emphasis has shifted from facts to scare tactics.
There isn’t any consensus on global warming. That statement came from a graduate student’s master’s thesis at the University of Illinois, where 77 experts were cherry-picked from 10,000 questionnaires. The world’s science organizations also refuse to poll their memberships to determine their true attitudes, but a George Mason University poll of broadcast meteorologists found that a majority are skeptical of any crisis.
Benjamin Franklin once wrote, “Some are weatherwise, some are otherwise.“
RON McCARLEY
Johnson City
zblf10 writes:
January 14, 2013
3:51 AM
Hmm should we blindly trust those who have factual evidence to back up what they say, or trust the rhetoric of the peons at Faux News who wants their viewers to believe global warming is a "liberal conspiracy" rather than fact? By the way, considering 2012 was the hottest year on record and temps are only getting higher, maybe we should start trusting those scientists a little more.
Submariner writes:
January 17, 2013
7:42 AM
OK, I'll bite. The hottest year on record for who, the U.S. or the world? And NOAA isn't adding 2 degrees or so to the measured temperatures, are they? And you certainly have acquainted yourself with the Climate gate e-mails, which show alarmist scientists conspiring to falsify and distort data, and punish skeptics in climate science. A lie can travel halfway around the world before the truth puts on its pants.
Submariner writes:
January 17, 2013
8:40 AM
Tell you what. If you see this, tell me factually what you believe about any part of global warming, such as drought, polar ice melt, hurricanes, sea level rise, etc. Let's stop the rhetoric and discuss facts, without the references to "peons at Faux News".
skdowd writes:
January 23, 2013
9:28 AM
'Climategate' has no effect on climate science. Emails taken out of context are not smoking guns. As for Tetlock and Kahan, did they look at the skeptics and their motivations? Tetlock admits that the climate scientists and their data are the best we have. Be careful when you quote sources like these. They do not help your side.