Local economist: Cliff deal just a start

Published January 2, 2013
By Rex Barber - Assistant News Editor

Politicians in Washington may have reached a compromise on the so-called “fiscal cliff,” but there are still major issues to be discussed in the coming months regarding spending that could have major implications for the economy, according to one East Tennessee State University economics professor.

Douglas Dotterweich, an economics professor and urban and regional economist, said the most significant thing to come out of the tax package Congress passed New Year’s Day was in regard to revenue because the deal will raise about $600 billion over 10 years.

“It sounds like a lot but it’s not a lot considering where we are,” Dotterweich said.

But Dotterweich said the big issues now are what were not addressed in the bill: The nation’s borrowing limit, entitlement spending reform and tax reform.

“Maybe it’s more what didn’t happen than what did,” Dotterweich said. “Because it’s back to where it was before, at least for another two months.”

The issue of government spending was postponed for two months for politicians to debate how to handle entitlements and other expensive government measures. Entitlement spending includes things like Social Security and Medicare.

Had the issue of the “fiscal cliff” not been resolved at least in part, massive spending cuts would have gone into effect.

Now politicians have given themselves time to discuss what to cut and how much.

“And those are the difficult questions,” Dotterweich said. “This (deal) is kind of a like a Band-Aid to get us to the next step. There weren’t many long-term solutions that came out of this bill.

“I think it’s good to get an agreement rather than no agreement,” Dotterweich said.

Dotterweich was not sure what would happen in two months, but he thinks the federal spending limit will increase to avoid problems and allow the country to meet its obligations. He also is not sure what will be decided about entitlement spending.

“The problem is the longer you delay, the bigger those problems become,” Dotterweich said.

The situation has created a broken fiscal policy, Dotterweich said, because the country is operating at a deficit. In fact, in the past 30 years there has only been one budget surplus.

Dotterweich said a structural change in tax collection and entitlement spending would lead to a normal fiscal policy situation where taxes decrease and spending increases during recessions and taxes increase and spending decreases during inflationary or expansion periods.

Anyway, despite the deal reached by Congress, most Americans will have more money taken out of their paychecks because the temporary reduction in the Social Security payroll tax expired. According to the Associated Press, in 2012, that 2-percentage-point cut in the payroll tax was worth about $1,000 to a worker making $50,000 a year.

Households making between $40,000 and $50,000 will face an average tax increase of $579 in 2013, according to the Tax Policy Center’s analysis, the AP reported. Households making between $50,000 and $75,000 will face an average tax increase of $822.

“It’s not necessarily a big reduction but it depends on your income level,” Dotterweich said of the payroll tax.

Dotterweich said now that a deal has been reached, businesses can be certain the capital gains tax rate will increase from 15 percent to 20 percent. The merits of the increase are likely debatable but Dotterweich said at least now businesses know what the rate will be and can use that information to function.

“Businesses don’t like to make decisions if they don’t know what the outcome of the decision is,” Dotterweich said.

Families can be certain now too that taxes will not go up and things like the $1,000-per-child tax credit remain in place.

Medicare payments to doctors will also not go down by 27 percent, as was the plan if the country had gone over the fiscal “cliff.”

“The only thing is that’s going to cost all of us more now as a result of that,” Dotterweich said. “You’ve got to pay for it somehow.”

Comments
User comments are the sole responsibility of the individual posting them. By creating an account, you agree not to post comments that are off topic, obscene, abusive, or threatening in any way. Violators will be banned. Full Terms of Use

DrPat writes:

January 2, 2013
11:09 PM

I agree with Prof. Dotterweich. There is much to be done and I have little confidence in the Washington leadership.

mccrayj writes:

January 3, 2013
8:35 AM

Things aren't going to get any better with representatives like Phil "Party Line" Roe voting against everything but pure austerity through massive spending cuts. He obviously thinks the Greek model implemented by the EU is perfect for the US. So seniors, wake up! Phil believes that all the money you paid into Social Security shouldn't get you anything but a cut, and you really don't need Medicare either. It's a boondoggle that can be eliminated by privatizing it and let greedy profit taking companies run your health care. When Phil speaks, read between the lines. He is espousing the Tea Party austerity, if you aren't rich you're out of luck party line. Beware this guy. He is out to send every senior in this district to the poor house.

EaTn writes:

January 4, 2013
6:12 AM

With deficit borrowing we're getting about a 6:1 leverage over the interest rate cost to borrow, thanks to the feds keeping interest rate near zero which is also killing those who depend on interest income to supplement Social Security. This country is still a good deal to places like China to loan money to keep their export economy afloat. The economy revolves around the consumers who are now getting good deals from cheap imports, which is not helping the job situation in this country. Consumable jobs from goods made in this country is key to getting the economy on solid ground, but interest rate increase pressure from abroad could topple our fragile budget.

* An email verification will be sent to the address
provided.
Weather

Currently
Light Rain
64.0 F (17.8 C)

Last Updated on May 19 2013, 5:53 am EDT
Traffic Cam
More popular articles

More News